Author Topic: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions  (Read 15999 times)

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ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2022, 08:00:53 PM »
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals, 29/9/2022

This is a week 4 match up. The Dolphins are 3-0 and the Bengals are 1-2. The Pickwatch pundits are going out on a limb here, with 56% in favour of a Bengals win, despite their losing record. Clearly the Pickwatch experts expect a close match.

To maintain a consistent methodology I will have to go with the Bengals to win, although I suspect that when the experts have put all their choices in to the mix, the match may end up pretty close to 50:50.

What is clear is the team that is counted as favourite will win, as the ascendant lords - Mars and Saturn - are much stronger.

Mars is the ruler of the ascendant. It is in Gemini, in its own bounds, in WSH three. This places it in aspect to the horizon, although in a cadent house. Saturn is in its own sign, in WHS eleven. There is no reception, but Saturn is well placed in relation to the ascendant. The final factor is that Mars and Saturn are in partile trine, both being in 19 degrees of air signs.

The Dolphins have Venus as ruler and Mars as bound lord. Venus is close to the Sun and has just entered Libra. It is in it's own sign, but in the bounds of Saturn. Mars is the bound lord of the descendant degree, so the lord is shared with the Bengals. However, there is no relationship between except that the the bound degrees ruled by Mars at the end of Libra are in a Venus ruled sign.

Looking at this analysis, and assuming that the Bengals remain the Pickwatch experts' favourite, the Bengals should win. They will be tough to beat because of the powerful combination of Mars and Saturn. However, this match does highlight the methodological question of using the Pickwatch choice as the favourite. However, in some ways I think this may be more objective than the bookmakers' choice as their odds are shaped by the amount of money placed on a particular team to win.

Therefore - Bengals to win.

Postmatch

The Bengals picked up a handy win here, moving them to 2-2. The Dolphins picked up their first loss of the season moving to 3-1.

Experts 1 Astrologer 1

Running total (9 matches)

Experts 6/9 (66%) Astrologer 7/9 (78%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 31/48 (65%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners more or less at the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 31 winners from 48 selections.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2022, 09:46:10 PM »
Vikings @ Saints, 2/10/2022, London

This is the first London game of the season. The Vikings (2-1) are heavily favoured by the pundits to win (84%). The Saints (1-2) are given home team billing.

The astrology tends to bear out the pundits' views. The Vikings have Jupiter as the ascendant ruler; Mars is the bound lord of the ascendant degree. Both are in their own bounds, and Jupiter is in Aries, ruled by Mars. Jupiter is in the WSH fifth. Mars is in the Saints' house, being in the descendant sign.

The Saints have Mercury as their ruler, with Saturn as bound lord. Mercury is a powerful significator here, being angular in the WSH tenth, and in its own sign Virgo. Mercury will have just stationed direct. Saturn is in its own sign, well placed in the WSH third, albeit cadent.

Both sides are going to have their chances in this match. However, I think the Vikings do have the edge, with the significators in a mutually supportive relationship and Mars in their opponent's sign. Having said that, Mars is ruled by a powerful Mercury. If the Saints' QB has a good game they are in with a chance.

Nevertheless, I will side with the experts - Vikings to win in London.

Postmatch

The Vikings won at the death, after a strong comeback by the Saints. Final score 28-25.

Experts 1 Astrologer 1

Running total (10 matches)

Experts 7/10 (70%) Astrologer 8/10 (80%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 31/48 (65%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners more or less at the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 31 winners from 48 selections.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2022, 08:00:04 PM »
Rams @ 49ers, 3/10/2022

This is the Monday night game from week 4. The 49ers host the LA Rams, the reigning Superbowl Champions. The Pickwatch experts have the Rams as their choice, with 68% of pundits favouring the LA team. However the bookmakers favour the 49ers with their odds. This generally means that the punters have laid a lot of money on the SF team, and the bookmakers are looking to contain potential losses rather than give any objective measure of the quality of the side. I will stick with my methodology of using the pundits' choice as the favourite. This divergence of views does make the prediction more uncertain but it is important to have a consistent method when working with astrology.

In fact, the 49ers are strongly supported by the cosmos to win. Using the ascendant to indicate the Rams, their rulers are Jupiter (sign lord) and Venus (bound lord). Jupiter is in its own bounds in Aries and Venus is in its own sign of Libra. Both are therefore strong by dignity. However the challenge for the Rams is that neither benefic is placed in houses that are related to the horizon. Jupiter is in WSH two and Venus in WSH eight. This makes it very difficult for the Rams to get any momentum in the game.

The 49ers, on the other hand, have Mercury as dual lord, ruling both sign and being bound lord. Moreover, Mercury is in its own sign, Virgo, and in the 49ers' descendant house. Mercury has also just turned direct and is in an intensely focussed part of its phase, being slow in motion. Secondarily, Mercury is in the bounds of Mars, and Mars is in Mercury ruled Gemini in its own bound. The Rams need help from Mars, being their ruler of their Jupiter, but Mars is firmly aligned with the 49ers' dual lord Mercury.

The key to this match is the performance of the Niners' QB, Jimmy Garoppollo. If he plays well, he will put the game out of reach of the Rams.

This looks very tough for the Rams. I'm with the bookmakers on this one and I think the pundits have it wrong.

Postmatch

A big, big win for the Niners, as predicted. Final score 24-9.

Experts 0 Astrologer 1

Running total (11 matches)

Experts 7/11 (64%) Astrologer 9/11 (82%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 42/63 (67%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners more or less at the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 42 winners from 63 selections (67%). The astrologer's performance has to be put into this context - I have picked winners from far fewer matches than the experts, so have had less opportunity to get predictions wrong. However I am pleased with performance so far.

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2022, 11:28:33 AM »
49ers D was all over the Rams. Great call again Ed.
Week 5 already!

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2022, 10:14:18 PM »
Thanks! I'll be doing my week 5 predictions in the next day or so. I think I will watch the 49ers game - I saw the pick six by Hufanga on highlights. Amazing skill and speed.

Ed

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2022, 10:07:17 PM »
Colts @ Broncos, 6/10/2022

Week 5 kicks off with the Colts' visit to Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado, to play the Broncos. The Broncos have invested in Russell Wilson at QB, once of the Seattle Seahawks. At this stage of the season, the payoff is yet to materialise, with the Denver team 2-2. The Colts have one win, two losses and a tie. The Pickwatch pundits favour the Broncos over the Colts by 3:1.

The astrology suggests that the Broncos will win this match. With Aries rising they have muscular Mars as their ruler; Venus is bound lord. Both have dignity - Venus is in Libra, one of its own signs, and Mars is in its own bounds. Both are well placed, with Venus being in the opponent's sign, and Mars in the WSH third, albeit cadent.

The Colts have some advantages, but none seem to outweigh the Broncos' symbolism. The Colts have Venus as their ruler, and Mercury as bound lord. Venus - a planet shared with the Broncos - is placed in their own house, and seems to work for both sides. Mercury is in its own sign, but in the WSH sixth. This is an ineffective place and Mercury's symbolism does not have a ready outlet in the game. This suggests problems for the Colts at the QB position, particularly since Mercury is in the bounds of Mars. Mars is ruled by Mercury, but overall I think Mars has the upper hand here.

My sense is that the power of the Broncos, probably in the D-line, will overwhelm the Colts' offense. The QB may be sacked multiple times. It may be instructive that the Saturn lot - Nemesis - is partile conjunction with Mercury. Nemesis is a lot that associated with loss, frustration and barriers.

One point to watch here is the weighting given to the placement of the favourite's bound lord in their opponents' house. This may be overweighted (score = 4), and may overstate the chances of a Broncos' win. I will be watching this closely as a learning point.

However, I tend to agree with the pundits here - a Broncos win at home.

Postmatch

The Colts won this match against the prediction. It was a defensive fight to the death, going into overtime, with neither team being able to make headway offensively. Neither team scored a touchdown. All points came from field goals.

Final score 12-9.

Experts 0 Astrologer 0

Running total (12 matches)

Experts 7/12 (58%) Astrologer 9/12 (75%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 42/64 (66%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners at less than the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 42 winners from 64 selections (66%). The astrologer's performance has to be put into this context - I have picked winners from far fewer matches than the experts, so have had less opportunity to get predictions wrong. However I am pleased with performance so far.

Analysis

It looks like the algorithm is over-weighted in respect of the bound lord being in the opponent's house. I will reduce this scoring in the routine. In reality this would have tied the teams on points, with any final judgement about the outcome needing to be made by the astrologer. I think, in this case, I would have still favoured the Broncos because of the Mars factor in this game.

Thoughts on general signification:

Mercury - quarterback
Mars - defense
Venus - special teams (kickers etc)

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2022, 09:55:11 AM »
That was a tough game to watch. No TD and all points came from field goals. Colts had 0 TD, threw multiple interceptions, sacked 6 times and still won. My super bowl pick is not looking good.

« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 09:57:01 AM by dbozics »

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2022, 10:13:25 PM »
Giants @ Packers (London), 9/10/2022

The next week 5 game is the London match up between two 3-1 teams - the NY Giants and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have home team status. The Pickwatch experts favour the Packers with 99% of them choosing the Green Bay team to win.

The astrology also favours a Packers victory. The Packers have Saturn as their ruler, with Mercury as the bound lord of the ascendant degree. Both are strong by dignity, being in their own signs. Mercury is also in the bounds of the ruler Saturn. The greater malefic isn't working for the Packers however. It is in the second WSH house and is not configured with the horizon. Mercury is in the WSH ninth, a better position, and potentially represents the importance of veteran QB Aaron Rodgers in this match.

The Giants have the Moon as ruler and Mars as their bound lord. The Moon is in Mars' sign Aries and is well configured with the horizon in the WSH fourth (angular). Mars is not well placed, being in the WSH sixth, and ruler by Mercury. However it is strengthened by being in its own bound. The impact of Mars' symbolism in the game is limited because the planet is not configured with the horizon. Of note is the influence of the Packers' bound lord, Mercury on both positions. The Moon is in the bounds of Mercury; Mars is ruled by Mercury. This reinforces the idea that the difference between the sides will be the Packers' QB.

Of note is the antiscion position of Mars, which maps directly onto the descendant. I am not entirely convinced of the importance of antiscia in sports astrology. This match might be a useful test of this concept in sports prediction. The Mars antiscion position suggests that the bound lord for the Giants has some outlet through the descendant degree.

This is a match that turns on the Giants' ability to turn passion (Moon and Mars) into a result to upset the Packers. However, the Packers need to rely on methodical calculation (Mercury and Saturn) to hold their own against revitalised Giants team.

In my view, the Packers' are likely to win this match, but I don't think they will have an easy ride. Rodgers definitely has to perform in this game to carry his team to victory.

Postmatch

The Giants turn over the Packers. This is an upset of some significance and shows that the NY team are becoming a force to be reckoned with. The Giants blitzed the Packers in the 4th quarter.

Final score 27-22.

Experts 0 Astrologer 0

Running total (13 matches)

Experts 7/13 (54%) Astrologer 9/13 (69%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 42/64 (66%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners at less than the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 42 winners from 64 selections (66%). The astrologer's performance has to be put into this context - I have picked winners from far fewer matches than the experts, so have had less opportunity to get predictions wrong. However I am pleased with performance so far.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2022, 07:10:24 AM »
49ers @ Panthers, 9 October 2022

The next week 5 match is the 49ers road trip to the Panthers' home stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The experts favour the Niners here with 98% of pundits choosing the visiting team to win. The bookmakers share this view. The Niners are 2-2 and the Panthers, with the struggling Baker Mayfield at the helm, are 1-3.

The cosmos also points to a 49ers road win. The SF team have Saturn rising in its own sign as their ruler, with Jupiter as bound lord. Saturn is in the bounds of Jupiter (the ascendant degree bound too). Jupiter is in its own bound, aspecting the horizon from WSH three.

The Panthers have Sun as their ruler and Saturn as the bound lord of the descendant degree. The Sun is well placed, in the WSH ninth, but is in the bounds of the opponent's Jupiter. The descendant degree is in the bounds of the opponent's ruler Saturn. The Panthers have to rely on Saturn for most of their strength, but this planet is strongly associated with the favourite's position.

I don't think there is much for the Panthers here, so I agree with the experts and bookmakers: Niners to win on the road.

Postmatch

The 49ers won this match in convincing style.

Final score 37-15.

Experts 1 Astrologer 1

Running total (14 matches)

Experts 8/14 (57%) Astrologer 10/14 (71%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 42/64 (66%)

The experts in our chosen matches are predicting winners at less than the rate of the best Pickwatch experts who have 42 winners from 64 selections (66%). The astrologer's performance has to be put into this context - I have picked winners from far fewer matches than the experts, so have had less opportunity to get predictions wrong. However I am pleased with performance so far.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2022, 07:58:20 AM »
Bengals @ Ravens, 9/10/2022

This Sunday game sees the Bengals on the road to the home of the Ravens. The pundits favour the home team here, with 73% sensing a Ravens' win. The bookmakers agree with this assessment. Both teams are 2-2, and statistically they are very evenly matched. The Bengals have a better passing game, thanks to star QB Joe Burrow; the Ravens have the better rushing game thanks to star QB Lamar Jackson!

The astrological picture bears out the potential toughness of this match. It can't be called on the basis of the algorithm, with both sides scoring 5 points each. The sides, cosmically speaking, are extremely evenly matched. Both sides have well dignified rulers, but their primary lords are not well placed. Both sides are relying on the bound lord of their angle - Saturn - for any decisive edge, but this planet is placed in the angular WSH tenth. It's powerfully placed, but not leaning to either side.

It may be of note that Venus, the Ravens' lord, is quickly approaching the Sun - it is combust in the WSH sixth. This gives some indication that the Ravens position is not as strong as it first appears.

To break the deadlock, we have to look elsewhere in the chart. Mars and Venus are both under the influence of Mercury. Mars is in its own bounds in Mercury ruled Gemini; Venus is in its own sign Libra in the bounds of Mercury. Mercury's importance here points to the undoubted influence of the two QBs. Mercury itself is in its own sign in Virgo, in the bounds of Saturn. Saturn is very powerful in this chart - angular in Aquarius, a sign that it rules. Saturn is in the bounds of Jupiter. Jupiter however, although in its own bounds, is in the WSH twelfth, a position where it has limited options to impact the game. It is, however, ruled by Mars, the Bengals' primary lord.

The only thing that I can find to split the teams, is the fact that the Moon changes bound (from Mercury to Mars) towards the end of the game, potentially in overtime. This occurs around 23:12, nearly three hours after the start of the match. At 23:11 the MC in Pisces changes bound from Mercury to Mars and at 23:18 the IC changes bound from Jupiter to Mars. In my view, this period of time, if the game goes on this long, may close out a very tough match in favour of the Bengals.

I'm out on a limb but will say that the Bengals, the 'dogs, win a bruising match, potentially late in regulation time or in overtime, with a passage of play at around 23:11 to 23:20. We'll see!

Postmatch

The Ravens won this match against the prediction with a field goal at the death! The kick took them past the Bengals in the final seconds of the game. I don't know if my timing was correct, but the prediction of match play was pretty good, even if the result wasn't correct.

Final score 19-17.

Experts 1 Astrologer 0

Running total (15 matches)

Experts 9/15 (60%) Astrologer 10/15 (66%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 51/79 (65%)

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2022, 11:39:24 AM »
Intriguing game Ed. It seems the teams are evenly matched here. Looking forward to the end result 😎

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2022, 07:37:51 AM »
Commanders @ Bears, 13/10/2022

Week 6 kicks off with the Thursday night match between the Chicago Bears at home to the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are propping up the league at 1-4; the Bears have a 2-3 record. The two teams have opposing approaches to winning. The Commanders are not bad at passing and offensive play. The Bears are one of the league's leading rushing and defensive teams.

It's early for the Pickwatch experts' choices but there seems to be a consensus emerging around the Bears as favourites. The bookmakers give the bookies give the Bears a slight advantage.

On the whole the astrology indicates a Bears' win. They come out slightly ahead on the algorithm although none of the significators are showing an overwhelming advantage. The Commanders have to be on their top form defensively as their key significator is Mars, ruled by their bound lord and in its own bound. However it is not well placed in the WSH second.

The Bears' lords are Jupiter and Venus. Neither are well placed, but have a high degree of dignity. Venus, ruler of the first house is in its own sign and the bounds of Jupiter. It is approaching the Sun rapidly, hence combust, but this does not seem to be a significant factor in sports astrology.

The Moon's next aspect is the trine to Venus, perhaps giving the Bears an advantage.

Overall, Bears to win. Their rushing game needs to be working to get past the Commanders, but I don't see significant advantage for the visiting team.

Postmatch

My mid-season slump continues! The Commanders won this match 12-7. The best that I can say is that the astrology didn't really inspire confidence in either side. However I have to take the loss. The pundits also took a hit because around 2/3 of them predicted a Bears win.

Final score 12-7.

Experts 0 Astrologer 0

Running total (16 matches)

Experts 9/16 (56%) Astrologer 10/16 (63%)

Best Pickwatch Experts 51/79 (65%)

Analysis

This was a tough match in terms of prediction. Neither set of significators was pointing to a decisive victory for either side. My conclusion is that the combustion of the Sun (diminishing the Bears' ruler) may be a factor. I think it is unlikely that the position of a significator in relation to the Sun is generally problematic. However it may be that once the planet gets to within 3-4 degrees of the solar degree its power is reduced. The temptation now is to begin revising the algorithm and adding more and more factors into the equation. I will resist this at the moment and just note the learning points to see if they have any consistent impact.

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2022, 10:54:27 AM »
So close Ed. If only Mooney held onto the ball it would’ve been a TD. Bears were the better team in my opinion.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #28 on: October 15, 2022, 02:23:37 PM »
Thanks! If I have time I will have a look at a few more week 6 matches.

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2022, 10:27:16 PM »
Thanks! If I have time I will have a look at a few more week 6 matches.

All good Ed 👍
A few upsets already in week 6 with Steelers, Giants, Jets all winning.