Author Topic: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions  (Read 15998 times)

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ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #90 on: August 27, 2023, 04:50:10 PM »
Hi DB - I'm getting ready for the new season. A few tweaks to the algorithm and then I'll be ready to go.

Ed

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #91 on: August 28, 2023, 07:10:25 PM »
Hi - I've been reviewing last season's predictions to try and improve the algorithm. One thing I've noted is there was a dramatic decline in performance as the signs around the Cancer solstice (Gemini, Cancer, Leo) began to rise at the start of matches. It is fairly clear why this should be - the Sun is placed opposing signs, and with most matches starting in the afternoon and early evening, the Sun has a propensity to end up in houses (by whole sign) in 6, 7, and 8. At the same time, Mercury and Venus, which are never far from the Sun, end up in similar houses. This means that for favourites, identified by the rising sign, predicting a win becomes problematic as the algorithm discounts placements in houses 6 and 8 ('evil' houses) as they are not configured with the ascendant.

This sort of problem is likely to occur every season in late November and December. I don't have time at present to go into further analysis, but this suggests to me, that using the ruling signs of the ascendant and descendant as key significators is going to be problematic!

Ed

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #92 on: September 02, 2023, 11:50:12 AM »
I do recall beginning of last season you were on fire with your predictions. More often than not your analysis was pretty accurate. I can’t wait for next week.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #93 on: September 02, 2023, 12:55:58 PM »
Hi DB - yes - an incredible run of predictions which reached around 4 out of 5 games correct. The end of the season tailed off disappointingly. I think the same thing happened the season before, although I don't think I was quite as accurate.

Thanks for your on-going interest. 

Ed

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #94 on: September 03, 2023, 09:30:03 AM »
Hi there - on reflection, I'm going to code Frawley's method and use this for the forthcoming season. It will be interesting to see how his method fares. Ed

dbozics

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #95 on: September 03, 2023, 12:02:59 PM »
Does Frawleys method assign asc and dsc by team colours ?
I have a great website that list team colours week by week

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #96 on: September 04, 2023, 07:32:04 AM »
Hi DB - he doesn't use team colours. It's a very straightforward method that I'll explain as I go along. Essentially he looks at the lords of the Ascendant and MC for the favourites, and the lords of the Descendant and IC for the underdogs. He brings in other factors to including Fortune. It's interesting. Whether it works consistently remains to be seen. It's an interesting approach.

ABer

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Re: NFL - 2022-2023 Season - Predictions
« Reply #97 on: September 07, 2023, 08:40:54 AM »
Hi DB - here is a look at the output for Frawley's method. It's in alpha stage so working but far from finished. It's going to be work in progress for a while. Ed